“EXITING IRAQ, THE GEORGITE WAY, Revisited”

From December 14, 2006, on The Political Junkies.net

Column No. 131 by Steven Jonas, MD, MPH

Note to the reader: This column is based in part on a column on this subject that was published on TPJ just about a year ago, on December 10, 2005. Except that many more Americans and many, many more Iraqis are dead, Iraq is much more of a physical and socio-economic wreck than it was then, and the US position there is even more tenuous and provocative of violence, things haven’t changed much. Except that some major and powerful forces on the right wing of the American power elite now want the US out of Iraq. However, that branch of the same side that is headed by Dick Cheney doesn’t. And so to the substance of this column.

Since the time of 9/11, starting with comments made by Attorney General Ashcroft very early on, the Georgite line of attack on critics of their foreign policy in general and their Iraq policy in particular has been that such people are traitors. Dick Cheney has been a prime promulgator of the “traitor” line. Over the past year, especially during the mid-term elections campaign, Cheney’s attacks, along with those of his clones among Republican candidates, the Privatized Ministry of Propaganda and Bush when he was off his minders’ leash, with possibly even more venom than previously, were focused on those critics of the War who are and have been for quite some time calling the Georgites liars. And the chosen epithets changed from “traitors and cowards,” to “corrupt,” “shameless,” and “reprehensible.” “Totally reprehensible,” Cheney said, in charging the Georgite critics with lying about the Georgite lying.

At the end of 2005, when the original version of this column was written, I was convinced that Bush was preparing for a 2006 withdrawal. While Bush then as now was saying that a pullout was a “recipe for disaster,” it did seem to me and others (Agence France Presse, “White House Has Withdrawal Plan,” Nov. 28, 2005) that the Georgites were suddenly focusing on a pull-out of US forces by the 2006 elections. It obviously didn’t happen then. As were those who have been predicting a bombing attack on Iran since the spring of 2005, I was wrong. But now comes the Report of the Iraq Study Group. There is a new game in town. The question is will Bush, or more particularly Cheney, play, or rather one should say, be forced to play.

I have been characterizing the conflict within and among the Administration and its close advisors as between the “Baker Wing” and a “Cheney Wing.” I have said, here and elsewhere, that the Bakerites felt the time had come to pull out because the two original objectives of the invasion, oil and bases, had been achieved. I have also said that the objective of the Cheney wing is no pullout, ever, because they need Orwellian permanent war if they are ever to achieve their goal of overthrowing US Constitutional Democracy and establishing what they call the “Unitary Executive” and what everyone else calls “fascism.”

Now it would appear a) that I was wrong to a certain extent and b) that the Baker wing has broader concerns. If they can characterize the situation as “grave and deteriorating” and recommend eventual solutions that guarantee neither oil nor permanent bases, there are obvious other factors in play for the wing of the power elite that they represent. And it has now become very clear that that wing is a very broad one. For example, it should be noted that among the members of the ISG are former Senator Alan Simpson, one of the most conservative Republican Senators ever, before the Santorum-Inhofe crowd arrived, and a mentor for Cheney when Simpson was a Senator from Wyoming and Cheney was the Representative. Also a member is Ed Meese, one-time President of the National Council for Policy (he may still be; they are very secretive), the organization for all of the major right and far right-wing organizations in the US. The conclusions of the Report, particularly those concerning the utter failure of the Administration’s policies and programs for Iraq, are particularly striking because, as Sen. Russ Feingold pointed out on Keith Olbermann’s program on the day of the issuance of the Report, not one member opposed the war from the beginning (as Sen. Feingold did) and not one member nor any of the “experts” interviewed by it were either originally opposed to the war or are for as quick an exit as possible.

Nevertheless, even with growing opposition within his own party, the principal supporter, for policy reasons, of a US presence forever (or at least as long as possible) is “Permanent War” Cheney. Bush himself obviously wants to stay here until “victory is achieved,” however one might define victory and Bush surely hasn’t let on, on exactly what he has in mind (see “The BushGuide to Defining Victory in Iraq, II,” http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/jonas/034). The bully and the totally inadequate person inside him wants to stay because he’s “The Decider” and what he says goes, in his mind (or what’s left of it). But in this equation, he doesn’t really count. He will follow the directions of whoever has his ear. Cheney obviously has it now, but Baker and his people are surely moving to get it. One important move for them was to replace Cheney’s Rumsfeld with their man Gates (although the Baker folks had no way of knowing that Rumsfeld was about to abandon the Cheney ship resulting in his firing by Cheney before Baker could arrange it.) Other moves on both sides will surely follow. But in following those moves as an observer, it will help very much to understand who is doing what for what real reasons and why.

OK. Let’s say that Cheney loses the battle, for now at least, and Bush reverses course (as he has done so many times in his Presidency) and starts to move towards withdrawal (before the 2008 elections, surely a concern of Baker and the other Republicans on the ISG, one might add). One might say, isn’t that a good idea? On paper, yes –- but the way the Georgites will be doing it, possibly not so good. Totally ironic is the fact that the Georgite version of withdrawal will be a variation on “cut and run,” in time for Nov., 2008. It will be accompanied by tall tales of how successful the “Coalition” has been in training the Iraqis “to do the job.” However, just because they will be withdrawing (while all the time saying that they are not except that they are) doesn’t mean that they will have given up attaining their principal objectives for going in the first place.

As I pointed out a year ago, those objectives (none of which were clearly stated as objectives for the invasion beforehand) have been or in the case of certain ones where cannot know for sure (as in the matter of the bases) may (or may not) have been achieved. But the Baker wing says that it is time to go anyway. Why? They have gotten rid of Saddam (not stated as an objective independent of the “WMD” and the “al Qaeda link,” but it was a major one, enunciated by the Project for the New American Century in the mid-90s). And oh yes, the oil. They will likely “acquiesce” (encourage behind the scenes) in the establishment of a semi-independent Kurdistan, which will become a full US protectorate, along with, it just so happens, those potentially gigantic oil reserves. According to Joshua Holland, (AlterNet. Posted October 16, 2006. http://www.alternet.org/story/43045) there are even larger potential oil reserves in that Western Desert where the original plan called for the installation of those permanent bases. But apparently they won’t be needed. As Holland said: “Both independent analysts and officials within Iraq’s Oil Ministry anticipate that when all is said and done, the big winners in Iraq will be the Big Four — the American firms Exxon-Mobile and Chevron, the British BP-Amoco and Royal Dutch-Shell — that dominate the world oil market. Bush’s (sic) petro-cartel almost has Iraq’s oil.”

So, for these and for domestic political reasons for the Republicans and the Democratic original supporters of the war, it is time to go. Of course, none of the band-aids, “training, reconstruction,” embedding, out-bedding, will change the reality on the ground. In sum, the Georgite withdrawal will leave nothing in place that might bring some kind of stability to Iraq, might lead to the massive reconstruction program that Iraq so badly needs, might fend off the establishment of a totally undemocratic fundamentalist Shiite theocracy (built along the lines of what the Georgite Christian Right proposes for the US, ironically enough). Only the Iraqis can do that, and they might. So as not to go on forever here, I will be dealing (or will already have dealt) with that subject on BuzzFlash.

When the possible disaster on a variety of fronts (unless the Iraqis arrange to prevent it) gradually overtakes Iraq, the Georgite Privatized Ministry of Propaganda will be out in force of course (as they already are, in slamming the Iraq “Surrender” Group). Blaming it all on the ‘traitorous peace-niks” and worse, who “stabbed the military and the noble Bush Administration in the back.” Believe me, if the US is out of Iraq before the 2008 elections, even with Baker and his right-wing buddies as prime movers, the Republican/Roveite take-no-prisoners political machine will be going oh-so-strong with: “We could have won if it weren’t for those traitorous Democrats (and you know what the penalty for treason is, don’t you.)”

Let me conclude with another of my wild scenarios (and regular readers of mine know how I love them). Supposing the US withdraws and a coalition of Iraqi leaders makes sure that the country doesn’t collapse. But part of the settlement is indeed a semi-independent secular Kurdish republic, under behind-the-scenes US protection as it was during the Clinton years, standing astride all of that oil, between Iran and Turkey. Then supposing the Isamicists fully take over the Turkish government and, turning their eyes eastward, give up the idea of getting into the European Union. Islamicist Turkey and Islamicist Iran launch an all-out war on secular Kurdistan. For its part, Turkey, which has no oil, gets a share of what lies under Kurdistan. A federation of those two theocracies is established, along with the Shiite portion of present-day Iraq. The Saudi Monarchy is overthrown in a Wahabbist revolt. The new, massive federation, soon to be armed with nuclear weapons acquired one way or another, turns its eyes on their suffering co-religionists in Palestine. And the US military, massively weakened by the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld triumvirate, can do nothing about it, unless they choose to go nuclear. And then Cheney has his Permanent War after all.

Speculative? Indeed. Possible? Unfortunately.

________________

Steven Jonas, MD, MPH is a TPJ contributing author. He is a Professor of Preventive Medicine at Stony Brook University (NY) and author/co-author of over twenty-five books. Dr. Jonas is one of America’s most perceptive Democratic political analysts.

Dr. Jonas is also: a Columnist for the webmagazine BuzzFlash (http://www.buzzflash.com/); has his own website for short pieces entitled “Dr. J.’s Short Shots” (http://shortshot.wordpress.com/); a Contributing Editor for the Moving Planet Blog (http://www.planetarymovement.org/) produced by The Planetary Movement Ltd. UK (http://www.planetarymovement.org/the-planetary-movement/) TPJ’s Michael Carmichael, President and Chief Executive Officer; and a Contributing Columnist for the Project for the Old American Century, POAC (http://www.oldamericancentury.org/) on which his TPJ columns appear regularly. By invitation, Dr. J’s TPJ columns are also posted periodically on the weblog Thomas Paine’s Corner (http://civillibertarian.blogspot.com/).

In his book The New Americanism, Dr. Jonas presents his proposal for that “new vision and mission” for the Democratic Party that so many, for so many years, have been urging it to find. A new vision and mission are obviously needed with increasing urgency as with increasing speed and determination the Georgites drive our nation towards frank theocratic fascism. Dr. Jonas finds the needed vision and mission in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. The New Americanism: How the Democratic Party Can Win the Presidency is available from Amazon.com (go to “Books;” enter the full title) and BarnesandNoble.com (same).

He is also the author of The 15% Solution: A Political History of American Fascism, 2001-2022. Under the pseudonym “Jonathan Westminster” this book was originally published in 1996. It was republished with a New Introduction in 2004. Under Georgite rule, the “fictional non-fiction” scenario of this work of “future history” is, most unfortunately, becoming all too real, now almost day-by-day. Both versions are available at www.amazon.com and www.barnesandnoble.com (go to “Books;” enter the title). The 2004 edition is also available at www.xlibris.com (click on “Bookstore,” then “Search” with the title).

2006
Nov 30, 2006
“‘Are The Democrats Going To Blow It?’
That All Depends Upon what The ‘IT’ Is

Nov 16, 2006 “On Republican IRAQ Policy And Why No Grand Theft Election
(They’re Related)

Nov 12, 2006 “Democratic Ideas: Post-Election 2006”
Nov 2, 2006
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Oct 26, 2006 “The US Enabling Act, 2006, Part I: What It Is And Some Comparative History”
Oct 12,2006 Democratic Ideas, XIV: Attack On Defense Revisited”
Oct 5, 2006 “Iran Nukes, Revisited” (Expanded Edition)

Sept 28, 2006 “Democratic Ideas, XIII: Controlling The Agenda”
Sept 21, 2006 Reran article dated October 14, 2004
“GEORGE BUSH’S AMERICA”
Sept 14, 2006
“Democratic Ideas, XII: Focusing On The Constitution”
Sept 7, 2006 “Let’s Hear It For Strict Constructionism,” V. 3, Part 3”

Aug 16, 2006 “Let’s Hear It For Strict Constructionism, V. 3, Part 2”
Aug 10, 2006 The Dick Durbin Disaster – reran
Aug 3, 2006 Democratic Ideas, IX:, “Let’s Hear It For Strict Construction (V. 3), Part 1”

Jul 27, 2006 “What’s It All About, Alfie?”
Jul 19, 2006 “Democratic Ideas, VIII: Let’s Play Capture The Flag”
Jul 13, 2006 “Ann Coulter: The New Face Of The Republican Party”
Jul 6,2006 “Ideas For Democrats, VII: Bipartisanship On Iraq”

Jun 29, 2006 “Ideas For Democrats, VI: Attack On Defense, II”
Jun 22, 2006 “Ideas For Democrats, V: Attack On Defense”
Jun 15, 2006 “Ideas For Democrats, IV: The Ten Commitments, Re-visited”
Jun 8, 2006 “Ideas For Democrats, III: Dealing The DLC”
Jun 1, 2006 “Ideas For Democrats, II: Why Don’t The Democrats?”

May 25, 2006 “Ideas For Democrats, I: The Vision”
May 18, 2006 “On Conspiracy Theories”
May 11, 2006 “The Significance Of The Tony Snow Job”*
May 3, 2006 “Bush Is Not Hitler, II”

April 25, 2005 “Bush Is Not Hitler, I”
April 20, 2006
Some Thoughts On The ‘Immigration Problem'”
April 13, 2006
“The Georgite State Of The Union Address Revited”
April 6, 2006 “A Firebell In The Night: The So-Called ‘Gay Marriage’ Amendment, II”
April 2, 2006
“A Fireball In The Night:
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Feb 22, 2006 “The German Reichstag Fire of 1933 and 9/11: Some Comparisons. A Revisit,
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Feb 16, 2006 “The German Reichstag Fire Of 1933 And 9/11: Some
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Feb 9, 2006
A Comment On The Democratic Alchemy,’
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Feb 2, 2006
Vengeance Is Mine, Saith The LORD

Jan 26, 2006 “George Bush And The Doctrine Of Original Intent”
Jan 19, 2006
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Jan 12, 2006
“A Quick Visit To Mexico”
Jan 5, 2006
“Why The Patriot Act, Redux: Fascism In The Here And Now, Cont.”


Dec 22, 2005 “Why The Patriot Act, Redux: Fascism In The Here And Now”
Dec 15, 2005 “An Iraq Exit Proposal”
Dec 10, 2005 “Exiting Iraq, The Georgite Way”
Dec 1, 2005 The Future Of The Democratic Party, VIII:
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Nov 25, 2005 “The Future Of The Democratic Party, VII: ‘The Ten Commitments’”
Nov 17, 2005
The Future Of The Democratic Party, VI: An Organizing Proposal For Progressives”
Nov 10, 2005
“The Future Of The Democratic Party, V:
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Nov 3, 2005
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Oct 27, 2005 “The Future of the Democratic Party, IV:
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Oct 20, 2005 “The Future Of The Democratic Party, III:
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Oct 13, 2005
“The Future Of The Democratic Party, II: On The Republicans”
Oct 6, 2005
“The Future Of The Democratic Party, I”

Sept 29, 2005 “The Bush Flood, And The Georgites: New Orleans, III”
Sept 22, 2005
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Sept 15, 2005 “On The Great New Orleans Bush Flood Of 2005, I”
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“Let’s Hear It For Original Intent”
Sept 1, 2005 “An Iraq Solution”

Aug 25,2005 “Some Thoughts On The Atomic Bombing Of Japan”
Aug 18, 2005 “Why God Sent Us George W. Bush”

Aug 12, 2005 “John Bolton And The Nuclear Option II”
Aug 5, 2005 “The Significance Of The Karl Rove Speech”

July 28, 2005 “Iran Nukes, Revisited”
(Expanded Edition)

July 21, 2005 “Iran Nukes, Revisited”
July 14, 2005 “The Dick Durbin Disaster” A Follow Up
July 7, 2005
The Dick Durban Disaster”

June 23, 2005 Why All Of This Repression Abroad?”
June 16, 2005
Not Very Intelligent Design”
June 8,2005
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June 2, 2005
Pat Buchanan’s ‘What If,’ II?”

May 26, 2005 “Pat Buchanan’s ‘What If?'”
May 18, 2005 The Schiavo Case, V: The Attack On Science”
May 12, 2005 “Possible Explanations For Bush-Behavior On And Around 9/11″
May 5, 2005 “Bill Frist’s Declaration Of War”

April 28, 2005 “The Schiavo Case, IV: The Definitions Of Life And Death”
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April 7, 2005 “The Schiavo Case And The Locus Of The ‘Police Power'”

March 31, 2005 “John Bolton And The Nuclear Option”
March 22, 2005 Of “Moolahs,” Putin and Bush
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Georgite “Freedom And Democracy”
March 10, 2005 “We Won’t Have To Worry Any More”
March 3, 2005 “Iranian Nukes”

February 24, 2005 “Going Nuclear In Iran”
February 16, 2005 “The Georgite Social Security Scam: Bases For Suspicion”
February 10, 2005 “The Georgite Version of ‘Freedom and Democracy’ ”

“The Coming 2nd Civil War (Unless),” No. 6

Feb 3, 2005 “WMD Discovered — In Washington”

Jan 27, 2005 “Comparing George W. Bush And Adolf Hitler”
Jan 18, 2005 “The Bush Second Inaugural: A Preview” “The Coming 2nd Civil War
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Jan 13, 2005 “The Georgite Concept of Constitutionalism and the Rule of Law”
Jan 6, 2005 “The ‘Unless’ Of The ‘Coming Second Civil War’ Series; Part II”

Dec 30, 2004 “The ‘Unless’ of the ‘Coming Second Civil War’ Series, Part I”
Dec 23, 2004 “The Real Meaning Of The ‘Faith-Based Presidency;’ Part II”
Dec 15, 2004 “The Coming Second Civil War (Unless)”
Dec 9, 2004 “The Real Meaning Of The ‘Faith-Based Presidency’ ”

Oct 28, 2004 Why The Patriot Act?”
Oct. 21, 2004 “The Cheneys’ Daughter Flap”
Oct 14, 2004 “George Bush’s America”
Oct 7, 2004 “The Debate”

Sept 30, 2004 “Four 800 Lb. Gorillas In The Campaign Room”
Sept 23, 2004 “Fixing The Kerry Campaign, 9/15/2004”
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Sept 9, 2004 Thoughts On the Third Anniversary of the Tragedy of 9/11/2001″
Sept 2, 2004 “Lessons From Japan, Part 1”

August 26,2004 “Dealing with the Republican National Convention and Related
Issues”

August 18, 2004 “The Best Of Dr. Jonas”
August 12, 2004 “Some Thoughts For and About The Kerry Campaign, VI”
August 5,2004 “Some Thoughts For and About The Kerry Campaign, V”

July 29, 2004 “Some Thoughts For and About The Kerry Campaign, IV”
July 22, 2004 “Some Thoughts For and About The Kerry Campaign III”
July 15, 2004 “Some Thoughts For And About The Kerry Campaign II”
July 7, 2004 “Some Thoughts For And About The Kerry Campaign,I”
July 1, 2004 “Counsel To The President”
June 24, 2004 “ ’You Know me Al:’ On the German Reichstag Fire of Feb. 27, 1933
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June 17, 2004 “ ‘The Ralph Nader Problem’ — A Re-run plus”
June 10, 2004 “Ronald Reagan’s Legacy”
June 3, 2004 “’You Know Me Al:’ On The Reichstag Fire Of Feb. 27, 1933 And The
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May 27, 2004 “On Fascism — And The Georgites”
May 20, 2004 “On John Ashcroft — And Jefferson Davis”
May 13, 2004 “Karl Rove’s Personal Political Notebook”
May 6, 2004 “Possible Explanations For Bush Behavior And 9/11”

April 29, 2004 “On George Bush and Religion, Part 2
April 22, 2004 “What Condi Rice Might Have Said”
April 8, 2004 “On George Bush And Religion”
April 1, 2004 “Some Political Thoughts For Senator Kerry”

March 25, 2004 “Brief Essays”
March 16, 2004 “You Know Me Al: The Iraq War — So What Was It About, Anyway?
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March 4, 2004 “A Firebell In The Night”

February 27, 2004 “On Doctor Dean”

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