The October Surprise

Steven Jonas, MD, MPH

Well, it’s the middle of October and the Republican October Surprise that Karl Rove promised us just a few weeks ago has not been delivered. At least it hasn’t appeared to have been delivered. I think that that Republican October Surprise for this year is that there will be none. That doesn’t mean that the Republicans themselves have not been surprised. They tried to keep the Foley Scandal under wraps as long as they could, but they couldn’t manage to do that for long enough. Now it may be that those dastardly “Soros-Democrats,” as Hannity likes to call them, did know about it as long ago as last spring and then conspired to keep it under wraps until now, just before the election. Yes, we do know just how dastardly those Soros- and oh yes,
Clinton-, Democrats are now, don’t we? If that is the case, I say more power to them. But, of course, the Foley thing and the cover-up which may extend back as long as five years ago, is real, no matter which political opponents of the Republicans may have known about it when. However, I believe that even without the Foley thing, and especially with it, the October Surprise this time around is actually that there will be a November Surprise, post-election.


It has two components. One has to do with Iraq, the other with Iran.The first November Surprise is signaled by the report of the Baker Commission reported on in BuzzFlash on Oct. 12. If there is a single person representative of the section of the power elite currently in control of the country, that is the oil industry and their good buddies in the other extractive industries and the military-industrial complex, it is James Baker. Among other things, he was the single most important figure in engineering the Grand Theft Election of 2000. And here he comes along and says that things really aren’t going so well in Iraq. (Actually, his report wasn’t supposed to be published until after the election, but somehow these security-over-the-top-folks just managed to have its major findings leaked.) Further, there is the number one Bush-patsy-who-doesn’t-appear-to-be-one-publicly in the Senate, John Warner, coming back from
Iraq last week and saying “things aren’t going so well.”
For now, Bush is staying with “stay the course.” Of course he has to if he has any chance of keeping the Georgite faithful, faithful through Nov. 7. But the ground is being laid for him to announce, after the election, a sea-change on Iraq policy (while of course claiming that it isn’t). It will have no more validity than Nixon’s “secret plan” to end the Vietnam War, but it will sound good. Why would they be doing this? Because they have come to their senses? Hardly. In my view they are doing it because they have achieved their two major objectives for the War: oil and bases (hardly an original thought with me, but see columns of mine on The Political going back to March 16, 2004, “Iraq War — So What was it About, Anyway?“). The permanent bases in the Iraqi Western Desert and Baghdad are either finished or close enough to it. The puppet Iraqi government has put forward legislation to “federalize” the country, which would mean establishing an American protectorate of Iraqi Kurdistan. Sitting on top of oil reserves that some geologists think are larger than those of Saudi Arabia, such a
Kurdistan has been the other major Georgite objective all along. What about Turkey? Bought off with a share of the Kurdish oil revenues, and some oil, too. Also, such a move, false as it would be, would take away from the Democrats a principal 2008 Presidential Campaign issue. That, as Nixon did in 1968, is classic Republican politics.
As for Iran, these maniacs may well attack. But such an attack will come after the elections, not before. With a majority of the voters against the Iraq War, attacking Iran now would make things worse for the Georgites politically, not better. So Bush will sound tough now, but not do anything about it. But after the election, win (which I think they will, by cheating) or lose, that’s when he will attack if he does. Of course, it’s all about oil, not nuclear weapons. If it were about the latter, that Arabian Seas/Persian Gulf Task Force would be steaming towards North Korea, not Iran. And oh yes, they will do it without consulting Congress, win or lose on Nov. 7. They will either fabricate an “incident,” or they will just do it with some fancy words about “heading off dramatic dangers at the pass.” Even the Georgites know how fundamentally weak the US is militarily, but they obviously think that they can do something that has never been done before: win a war with air power alone. For their domestic constituency they will want to appear “tough,” especially as they phase out of the present Iraq, and they really do want to add all that Iranian oil to the reserves they will be picking up in Kurdistan. And so, unless the Democratic Party and that growing sector of the US power elite that is anti-Georgite intervene forcibly, there will be a war with Iran, with all of the dire consequences for both the people of
Iran and all of the rest of us that every non-Georgite expert is predicting. Let us all enjoy our time on this Earth, as long as we have it.

* * * Steven Jonas, MD, MPH is a Professor of Preventive Medicine at Stony Brook University (NY) a weekly Contributing Author for The Political Junkies ( and a Columnist for BuzzFlash.  

Published in: on 11/04/2006 at 5:43 pm  Leave a Comment  

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